Road to the Draft – Part 15
April 27, 2021
By Noonefromtampa
Welcome to the last edition of The Hog Sty’s 2021 mock draft tracker column.
The big news this past week was a trade between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens in which the Ravens sent Orlando Brown to the Chiefs. The Chiefs will get Brown, the 58th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and a 2022 sixth-round pick in exchange for the Chiefs’ first-round pick (No. 31), third-round pick (No. 94) and fourth-round pick (No. 136), plus a 2022 fifth round pick.
Since the big trade happened on Friday it did not have much impact on last week’s published mock drafts. The other big news was Justin Fields admitting he was under medical treatment to control epilepsy. The draft experts are expecting this to cause him to drop in the draft; the big question is, by how much. He seemed poised to be a top 10 selection before that revelation.
The Mocks
The number of mock drafts published rose this week from 261 to 288. Linebacker maintained its lead over offensive tackle as the most likely position chosen by Washington in the draft. The other change from prior weeks is that two mock drafts had WFT picking a running back. The position distribution is now:
| Position | Picked Count | Picked % | Last Week % | % Change |
| LB | 83 | 28.82% | 25.67% | 3.15% |
| OT | 54 | 18.75% | 22.61% | -3.86% |
| QB | 51 | 17.71% | 18.77% | -1.07% |
| IOL | 42 | 14.58% | 13.79% | 0.79% |
| WR | 39 | 13.54% | 12.64% | 0.90% |
| CB | 8 | 2.78% | 2.68% | 0.10% |
| Edge | 3 | 1.04% | 1.15% | -0.11% |
| S | 3 | 1.04% | 1.53% | -0.49% |
| RB | 2 | 0.69% | 0.00% | 0.69% |
| TE | 2 | 0.69% | 0.83% | -0.14% |
| DT | 1 | 0.35% | 0.41% | -0.07% |
| Grand Total | 288 | 100% |
Linebacker rose over 3% again this week continuing the gains from last week. Offensive tackle was down nearly 4% and quarterback was over 1%. Interior offensive line and wide receiver posted modest gains, while the rest of the positions had minor fluctuations.
The players mock picked to WFT at nineteen in descending frequency are:
| Player | Position | School | Picked Count | Picked % |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | Notre Dame | 55 | 19.10% |
| Christian Darrisaw | OT | Virginia Tech | 35 | 12.15% |
| Mac Jones | QB | Alabama | 30 | 10.42% |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | Minnesota | 24 | 8.33% |
| Teven Jenkins | IOL | Oklahoma State | 21 | 7.29% |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | IOL | USC | 18 | 6.25% |
| Trey Lance | QB | North Dakota State | 13 | 4.51% |
| Samuel Cosmi | OT | Texas | 12 | 4.17% |
| Zaven Collins | LB | Tulsa | 10 | 3.47% |
| Micah Parsons | LB | Penn State | 9 | 3.13% |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Florida | 8 | 2.78% |
| Jamin Davis | LB | Kentucky | 7 | 2.43% |
| Caleb Farley | CB | Virginia Tech | 4 | 1.39% |
| Devonta Smith | WR | Alabama | 3 | 1.04% |
| Justin Fields | QB | Ohio St | 3 | 1.04% |
| Dillon Radunz | OT | North Dakota State | 2 | 0.69% |
| Jaelan Phillips | Edge | Miami | 2 | 0.69% |
| Kyle Trask | QB | Florida | 2 | 0.69% |
| Trevon Moehrig-Woodard | S | TCU | 2 | 0.69% |
| Liam Eichenberg | OT | Notre Dame | 2 | 0.69% |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | Florida | 2 | 0.69% |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | Alabama | 2 | 0.69% |
| Alex Leatherwood | IOL | Alabama | 2 | 0.69% |
| Rondale Moore | WR | Purdue | 2 | 0.69% |
| Jaycee Horn | CB | South Carolina | 2 | 0.69% |
| Travis Etienne | RB | Clemson | 1 | 0.35% |
| Azeez Ojulari | Edge | Georgia | 1 | 0.35% |
| Jalen Mayfield | OT | Michigan | 1 | 0.35% |
| Zack Wilson | QB | BYU | 1 | 0.35% |
| Greg Newsome II | CB | Northwestern | 1 | 0.35% |
| Christian Barmore | DT | Alabama | 1 | 0.35% |
| Jackson Carman | IOL | Clemson | 1 | 0.35% |
| Eric Stokes | CB | Georgia | 1 | 0.35% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Player Trade | 1 | 0.35% |
| Jevon Holland | S | Oregon | 1 | 0.35% |
| Baron Browning | LB | Ohio St | 1 | 0.35% |
| Spencer Brown | OT | Northern Iowa | 1 | 0.35% |
| Najee Harris | RB | Alabama | 1 | 0.35% |
| Rashawn Slater | OT | Northwestern | 1 | 0.35% |
| Nick Bolton | LB | Missouri | 1 | 0.35% |
| Kellon Mond | QB | Texas A&M | 1 | 0.35% |
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was up another 2.5% this week, increasing his lead over Christian Darrisaw, who dropped another 2%. Two other big movers this week are Alijah Vera-Tucker, who was up 0.9% and Rashod Bateman, who was up 0.67%.
Breaking down the percentage picked within the position group for the top five positions:
- Quarterback – Mac Jones (58.8% of QB picks), Trey Lance (25.5%), Justine Fields (5.9%), Kyle Trask (3.9%), Kellen Mond (2%), Zack Wilson (2%)
- Offensive tackle – Christian Darrisaw (64.8% of OT picks), Samuel Cosmi (22.2%), Liam Eichenberg (53.7%), Dillon Radnuz (3.7%), Spenser Brown (1.9%), Jalen Mayfield (1.9%), Rashawn Slater (1.9%)
- Wide receiver – Rashod Bateman (61.5% of WR picks), Kadarius Toney (20.5%), Devonta Smith (7.7%), Jaylen Waddle (5.1%), Rondale Moore (5.1%)
- Linebacker – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (66.3%), Zaven Collins (12%), Micah Parsons (10.8%), Jamin Davis (8.4%), Nick Bolton (1.2%), Baron Browning (1.2%)
- Interior Offensive Line – Teven Jenkins (50%), Alijah Vera-Tucker (42.9%), Alex Leatherwood (4.8%), Jackson Carman (2.4%)
Twenty-six mock drafts have WFT trading the #19 pick with the distribution being:
| Trade Mocked | Count of Player |
| Trade up to #14 (Min) | 7 |
| Trade up to #7 (Det) | 6 |
| Trade up to #9 (Den) | 3 |
| Trade up to #8 (Car) | 2 |
| Trade down to #29 (GB) | 2 |
| Trade down to #23 (NYJ) | 1 |
| Trade up to #13 (SD) | 1 |
| Trade up to #3 (Mia) | 1 |
| Trade down to #21 (Ind) | 1 |
| Trade up to #16 (AZ) | 1 |
| Trade up to #15 (NE) | 1 |
| Grand Total | 26 |
Minnesota and Detroit are the most frequently mocked trade options with Trey Lance and Mac Jones being the players taken most often. There were also four trade down scenarios mocked with various players taken mainly linebackers.
Source: nflmockdraftdatabase.com